Turkey-Syrian Earthquake

The latest earthquake tragedy hit South-Eastern Turkey, near the Syrian border, and has devastatingly taken the lives of around 46,000 people. This figure is most likely to increase as rescuers continue their search for those still missing.

Seismologists, researchers that study the internal structure of the Earth and determine factors that contribute to an earthquake, say that this earthquake is the largest to ever be recorded in Turkey. The earthquake was followed by a number of aftershocks, including one that was nearly as big as the first. The first earthquake was classified as ‘major’ due to the magnitude scale being recorded as 7.8, the second quake was recorded at 7.5. The earthquake has caused houses and buildings to be destroyed. There are many questions as to what caused the earthquake, why the earthquake caused so much destruction and whether global warming is responsible.

Research has found that this area of Turkey is prone to earthquakes, due to the fact it lies at the intersection of three tectonic plates which make up the Earth’s crust. Tectonic plates are always slowly moving, but when the tectonic plates slip past each other along the fault it releases pressure that causes earthquakes and violent shaking. This recent earthquake is more than likely to have happened on one of the major faults which marks the boundaries between the Anatolian or Arabian plates. Due to the amount of energy released, this earthquake is much larger than previous ones in that area. Seismologists stated this earthquake “released around 16,000 times more energy than the moderate magnitude-5 earthquakes that might usually happen in the region”.

After the first earthquake in Southeast Turkey, three other earthquakes came after it. These other earthquakes are known as aftershocks. Aftershocks occur when the crust readjusts itself to the changes in stress. However, what does this tell us about global warming? Is it responsible along with climate change? Climate change refers to the changes that are happening to our planet and its side effect such as; melting glaciers, rising sea levels and droughts. It combines with global warming which is responsible for the Earth’s rising surface temperature.

Climate change can have some impact on the cause of earthquakes. Earthquakes are caused from the amount of stress on a fault line. NASA geophysicist Paul Lundgren spoke on climate change and said, ‘stress would be added on a fault if climate change had caused the surface water to rise’. There are also droughts which can alter the size of mountains if there is an increased water loss. This can also cause stress on faults. There has been scientific research to show that earthquakes have massively increased over the years. The figures show that between 1973 and 2008, the eastern US had an average of 21 earthquakes per year with a magnitude of 3. However, between 2009 and 2013, this escalated to 99 earthquakes with a magnitude 3 and higher per year. In 2014 there were 659 recorded earthquakes with a magnitude as high as 5.6. This increase is due to gas and oil production and how wastewater is injected in deep disposal wells which makes the fault lines more slippery.

So whilst climate change has factors that can be responsible for earthquakes, there is still a lack of certainty as to how much of a role climate change plays.

From the amount of destruction caused by the earthquake, there has been a lot of fear raised around the impact of the environmental crisis.

With industrial infrastructure and pipes being destroyed, the panic of water pollution and health issues increases. The water is not safe to consume as it is contaminated with excrement and bacteria. With around 46,000 people deceased, tens of thousands being injured, a number of buildings being destroyed and the future growth damage has resulted in Turkey’s already vulnerable economical state decreasing further.

Important public buildings including hospitals, schools and government offices have been damaged. Electricity lines need to be repaired along with gas and oil. The total cost of these destructions could mount up to as much as $84 billion. Not only is the cost of reconstruction affecting the economical state but, there are living expenses for the thousands of people affected.

Turkey’s economy had expectations to grow by 3-3.5% in 2023. However the current earthquake has massively impacted this expectation. It is now said that Turkey’s GDP will only grow by 0.0-1.0% in 2023, below average. There are multiple different factors that are heavily impacted by the earthquake such as, global economic conditions, internal political expectations and inflation. It is predicted a huge drop in employment is likely to happen too. Turkey’s government will have to receive financial support from surrounding countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Financial assistance from international banks could be a possibility however, the government has poor relations with the west and will be gradual. Turkey’s economy is facing severe challenging impacts which will take a long time to recover from.

Edited by Leah Massingham